The developments about the Wii and PS3 over the last few months got me thinking. Back in the end of the 16-bit days, Nintendo was coming off a big success with the SNES. Sony was the upstart, making use of new technologies in the PS1 like 3D graphics and CD-ROM storage while keeping the price below competitors like the 3DO and Saturn. More importantly, it expanded the gaming audience audience by attracting young adult and older teen gamers with its more "mature" games. Nintendo, mired in its own hubris stuck to cartridge format, driving up costs and didn't do much about 3rd party support, leading to a lot of damage to its market share and a reputation as "kiddy".

Now you have Sony coming off a huge success with its PS2. Nintendo has dropped to third behind Microsoft of all people. However, with the Wii it's introducing new technologies to the control system. It's also expanding the gaming audience by reaching into traditionally non-gamer, non-kid demographics with the DS. Sony is mired in its own hubris of maximizing processing power and leveraging Blu-Ray into homes with the PS3. A format that drives up the cost of the PS3 to 3DO or NeoGeo levels and whose technical problems have resulted in massive reductions in projected shipments.

Nintendo is going to have a huge head start on availability if they meet their estimates. Will the PS3 be another 3DO, too expensive for its own good? I don't think so, because the market seems to have grown enough to support 3 systems. Still, if people start snapping up Wiis they might not be all that eager to make the expenditure on a PS3 once the early shortages pass. I could see the PS3 hovering near the xbox or even settling down in third.