No, it's not even close to what was said. That was always an estimate. No one has done a ligitamate study (actually getting accurate data for that type of study is impossible as admitting to child rape leads to very long jail terms and a lifetime on a Sex-Offender List), so we don't know.
But considering that lolicon is child porn, I think that most people looking at child porn want to have sex with children. If not, then they wouldn't be collecting images of child pornography. Given that most people will eventually try to act on their sexual drives, it's not too far of a stretch to think that a person going so far as to import lolicon from japan might have acted on his impulses.