2029 Asteroid (24)

1 Name: OhNo789 : 2007-05-31 18:26 ID:adOKMvjw

In 2029 an asteroid will enter the earth's atmosphere and dip low enough so that it is below satelights. This pas will nock it ever so slightly off it's course and when it comes back in 2036 it may hit the earth, the chances are around 1 in 1600 but the fact that one exists is scary enough. I've heard a bit about this subject in an astronomy class and was wondering if any one had an opinion or information on it.

2 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-01 12:43 ID:Heaven

No, it will not "enter the Earth's atmosphere". That would be an immensely dangerous event. It will pass closer than the orbits of geo-stationary satellites, which are pretty far away from the Earth, but that certainly is uncomfortably close for an asteroid.

Also, nobody knows any kind of real odds for what it will do afterwards. Its course will be so significantly changed by the close passage of the Earth that we really have no idea where exactly it will be seven years later until it has actually passed us and we can measure the new orbit.

3 Name: 2Stupid2Survive : 2007-06-04 06:55 ID:1nkrmEuv

The asteroid is 99942 Apophis; the date is 2029 April 13. But even with the chance being under 1 in 1000 of a collision with the Earth, that's really not what should concern you.

No, what should concern you is that we've seen several asteroids passing Earth, only AFTER they had their encounter point. We only saw them leaving. Google those up for a while and you'll see what I mean. The great danger is not the asteroids that we know; instead, it's the asteroid that we don't know and won't see until it first starts to glow in the thermosphere (alt. 350km), followed by a kilo-megaton impact upon the surface of Earth less than 30 seconds later.

As Humanity insists on squatting upon the surface of a world dotted with evidence of past impactors, while also NOT looking outward for more, and NOT making provisions to colonize offworld, and also NOT making plans to stop even known impactors ... well, what else can you say that it's all too likely that Humanity is not intelligent enough to survive in the long term?

4 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-04 17:16 ID:sYMsTJ+Z

Remember 1997 XF11? that gave everyone a right scare. It'll pass close to us (about 2.4 times the distance from us to the moon) in 2028, october. (lot of asteroids around then it seems...) It was originally predicted to hit us, but then the science team "forgot to carry the y" and found it would miss. personally, I'm always a bit weary of hearing "oh, don't worry, it's not going to hit us, the original statement was false" because regardless of their tragectory, that's what they'd have to say. Otherwise, people would stop making food, going to work, paying their bills, etc - like countless "doomsday" cults have done throughout the centuries and ended up starving to death after they didn't die as predicted.

5 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-06 01:14 ID:JUQogMbh


Actually, no, the science did not team "forgrt to carry the y".

When initial observations of an asteroid is made, its velocity is not known with much precision. Calculations are made of the orbit, including the uncertainties, and if it is going to pass close to earth, there will be some small probability that it will hit the Earth, within the precisions of the measurement. After some time has passed, more measurements are made and the asteroid's velocity is known with greater accuracy and the possibility can be dismissed.

However, after step 1 but before step 2, newspapers love to print "ASTEROID WILL KILL US ALL" stories.

6 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-08 21:43 ID:Heaven


7 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-09 15:39 ID:frBQc4j3

If one of those big rocks did make it into the atmosphere, I wonder if the good old US of A would deploy its costly missile shield in an attempt to intercept it. I wonder how many smaller asteroids we could make out of a big one. We can scatter the devastation all across the world instead of having it all plop down in one spot. Might be nice.

8 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-10 21:10 ID:Heaven


At this point, nobody has weaponry that could even scratch an asteroid, short of nukes, and they can't target it anyway. Plus, at the speed it's moving at, hitting it after it comes into range would do pretty much nothing at all.

9 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-23 22:52 ID:ykZH267J

A quick calculation.
How old is rock earth? 4 billion years old?
How many craters created by 'megakiloton devastating super mega' impacts around? lets say 1000. Fuck it, say 10000.
So, on average, how many years pass between these 'awesome earth shaping' impacts?

400 thousand years.

How long have we been around? 15 thousand?

Will we see one? No.

10 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-23 23:19 ID:8mZrwnML


How long has Homo Sapiens been around? 200,000 years.
When did the ancestor of homo sapiens, Homo Erectus, appeared? 2 million years ago.

11 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-24 11:20 ID:ENX120Tv

fine. How long have you been around? 14 years?

12 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-24 13:45 ID:8mZrwnML

>>11 As a spirit? I'm immortal.

13 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-24 17:47 ID:Heaven

>>12 good, so you saw your share of asteroid hits already. Now quit scare mongering.

14 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-26 12:42 ID:Heaven

>>13 Who is scaremongering? I was just correcting the bad science from >>9.

15 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-29 04:38 ID:cgY+apb0

16 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-30 15:39 ID:frBQc4j3

man, I was hoping an asteroid would fall out of the sky and kill me...

(-__-) ....

17 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-30 17:36 ID:L9vO0F89

An asteroid would hit earth around that time, but thanks to science they are going to push it away in 2011 by using a super bullet.

18 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-06-30 19:13 ID:Heaven


19 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-07-11 17:46 ID:sm3zI1ar

For anyone who has astroid fetish, I recommend Stratos4

20 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-07-11 18:39 ID:Heaven


fuck asteroids,

it has girls with breasts in astronaut suits.

21 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-07-12 19:03 ID:Heaven


and it's feminist anime. sage.

22 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-07-13 14:06 ID:8mZrwnML

adj : of or relating to or advocating equal rights for women; "feminist critique"


23 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-07-13 20:16 ID:Heaven

>>22 shut up and watch it, it's made for you.

24 Name: Anonymous Scientist : 2007-07-13 20:17 ID:Heaven

even has lesbianism and girls holding hands for a better future (episode matsuri). oh yeah, also men get all the shit and they are the ones who die or get shot or humiliated. girrrls are the all powerfuls.

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