>The Capitalists have the race in a deathgrip

This is obviously false.

>return-on-investment for space colonization moves is far too long for any Capitalist to accept, given the payback times exceed the Human lifespan.

This may or may not be true, but you need to say why you believe space tourism and mining can't be profitable within a human lifetime (which human?)

>The big problem is that we're going to be far too busy killing each other for barrels of petroleum, to bother with space programs.

Killing people for oil is an American thing. America isn't the whole world.

>That accounts for a full third of my stated 9/1 odds. The next third is roundly taken care of by GREED. And the last third? RELIGION.

I just can't figure out what this means. Are you saying there's a 1/3 probability of an oil war, a 1/3 probability of people being greedy and a 1/3 probability of religions existing in the future, and further stating that the occurrence of any of these rules out space exploration for good? If so, I must inform you that you are doing it wrong.

>there's no sane chance that Humanity will EVER expand beyond the Earth before constant warring destroys too much of Human civilization before the ultimate collapse down to a pervasive pastoral existence.

No sane chance? None? Literally zero?

>In other words, the Humans of the 31st Century will live in log cabins and won't venture more than 20 miles from their birthplaces during their entire lives. The "Dream of Oil" has to die.

Sounds like you have a lot of faith in your vision.