Petroleum, from the Latin "rock oil", is the key element for the greatest technological evolution and expansion humanity has ever experienced. From airplanes and cars to the very clothes we wear and the food we digest, petroleum is all around us. It is our addiction, our savior, our own poison.
I believe that the end of the Petroleum Era is going to be a very hard moment in our specie's history. We live in a fully technological world, with society totally immersed into its immediate benefits. Take away the thing that runs our world, and we perish. Unless we do something.
That 4-ch doesn't have a Peak Oil thread doesn't surprise me, but that in our own conscience we can't foresee the consequences of the end of this black gold is alarming, in my point of view. Our food industry, for example, runs totally on petroleum: to run the motors of the tractors and trucks, to protect the crops from pests, to preserve them for later consumption, etc. Once oil is too expensive and out, what will push those engines? We will then face a food crisis so big that it will cause millions of deaths in just months. Humanity could be endangered.
Luckily, renewable energy is coming by. Welcome solar, wind, tide, geothermic, hydroelectric, hidrogen and biomass energy. Cheers. But plans for implementing this new technology should have been made at least a decade ago. Sadly, we haven't found a powerful enough alternative energy source that could feed the entire energy demand which petroleum seems to suffice so easily, still. Some governments haven't started funding for this new field of research in order to keep up with the decline of oil.
I say it's about time we publicly declare that we face a life-threatening crisis.
The OIL CRASH is coming.
Are you prepared for it?
Wrong...
If you believe Independent Reports from the Global Oil Industries, as well as studies by St.Petersburg Office of Energy Exploration, National Petroleum Institute, and Rand Reports. When you consider The Oil reserves in China, Russia, the Artic, the Antartic, the Continental USA and offshore Brazil: at current rate of consumption (which with growing population is still going down in per-capita usage), there's enough oil to last about 3,000 years.
This is also following the old false notion that Oil is a non-renewable fossil product, rather than that fact that oil is formed by Abiotic process.
Humanity has barely scratched at the total volume of oil the earth has to offer.
Furthermore, even though people like to look to solar, wind, tide, geothermic, hydroelectric, hidrogen and biomass energy as alternatives, there's no practical way these sources could ever totally replace the need for Oil, as their energy return rates are pathetically low in comparison.
Plus people protest the building of hundreds of square kilometers of solar arrays, or turning vast tracts of land into Wind Farms (and what happens when there's no wind?) And Hydroelectric... what about the fish? The damns would block the rivers, Hydrogen is so volitile that it is ABSOLUTELY INSANE that people are honestly considering this option as a public/commercial alternative to oil. Just imagine mini-Hindenburgs on the highway when there's a wreck. and Biomass, that still requires the growing of plants, the consumption of water, and oil to run the machines to sow/harvest, all the while reducing the available land on which to grow foodstuffs.
Geothermal is the only decent one, and even that is best used for simple domestic structure heating.
Even IF all of the world's societies stopped using Oil for fuel, it would still be necessary to have oil for lubrication of the machines, the making of clothes and technology. etc.
And yes, I keep 250liters of gas in a buried tank in the floor of my garage.
Also, people have been fear-mongering about a speculated Oil crash my entire life, so your post was nothing special or informative. Just an FYI.
Well, if there's no crash and we have plenty of OIL, why the fuck is it costing more every day? Even given the instability of the Middle east, there shouldn't be a quadrupling of oil prices in 12 years.
It isn't just specualtion, Speculation would only affect one country, not all of them. And oil prices are rising everywhere, not just the US.
Secondly, consumption will increase, as right now maybe 1/3 of the people on Earth have enough wealth to use electricity and cars. As more people in the third world get rich enough to live a first world lifestyle, the oil consumption will go up dramatically (as well as food needs and medical needs, and so on).
Well, if there's no crash and we have plenty of OIL, why the fuck is it costing more every day? Even given the instability of the Middle east, there shouldn't be a quadrupling of oil prices in 12 years.
It isn't just specualtion, Speculation would only affect one country, not all of them. And oil prices are rising everywhere, not just the US.
Secondly, consumption will increase, as right now maybe 1/3 of the people on Earth have enough wealth to use electricity and cars. As more people in the third world get rich enough to live a first world lifestyle, the oil consumption will go up dramatically (as well as food needs and medical needs, and so on).
You're not too bright, are ya' skippy?
Oil is a GLOBAL product.
Everyone everywhere, wants oil.
When Demand is high, but supply is low, the price will increase as there are certain persons paying MORE for the share of Oil they want to Buy.
This is called Supply Economics.
And yes, speculation in one nations markets, affects other nations markets, and because of the Global Economy and it's interaction with fungible commodities like Oil, speculation of supply/demand does in fact affect the global price.
There must also be consideration of cost of the infrastructure to produce and transport the Oil, as such that current Rental/Lease rates for a Panamac-TH tanker are about $3000.00 an Hour. And it takes WEEKS for a tanker to move across the oceans. I don't even know current lease rates for drilling derricks or offshore rigs, but I would speculate millions of dollars a day.
Let me refine this by using my favourite analogy of Sierra-Leone; There a gallon of petrol costs about $25.oo.(a fortune by Sierra-Leone standards) Why? Because its a war zone, a nation basically demolished by sectarian infighting. Now with that, there is a lack of ability to bring in more Oil, this is the supply, and yet there is still a demand for oil by the people. As such, the price has risen to match the ability of supply to the demands of the people.
Oh, and about 2/3-3/4 of the worlds population uses Oil for something, whether clothes, lubrication, heat or transport.
Also, it should be considered that about 85% of USA daily demand is imported from Canada and Mexico, both of whom are using slant/drilling technology to pump out the oil that is situated under USA soil. I was even surprised to learn CHINA is building Oil Rigs offshore of Cuba, midway to Florida.
I will end stating: Damn The USA has been stupid in denying itself its own natural energy resources, in deference to scenery and political bickering.
OP here.
That's right. I never took into consideration the power of world economics on the price of our resources. It's all a game about the producers/distributors and the customers. And it's true about the present renewable energy sources being not totally useful or safe. We haven't found a way to store hydrogen safely. There are very few places in the world where wind is constant. Dams to produce electricity cause environmental changes. Ethanol will never take off. Biodiesel will have problems becoming successful if it takes the same method as ethanol by taking part of our current agricultural production. Solar energy is horribly inefficient, below 30% of the energy it receives becomes electricity. Tide energy seems useless too. Geothermal is neat, but the salts coming from the vapor used to run the dynamos could harm the environment if released (perhaps).
Exxon Mobil decided on March to stop increasing the amount of barrels the company produces everyday (thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2008/03/why-exxon-wont.html). No wonder why those big oil company owners will have their pockets deepened with the increase in price. But it isn't totally clear if there is really that much oil left. I've heard that oil is being searched for in all the corners of the world, such as Equatorial Guinea in the armpit of Africa, Alaska (not a surprise though by being part of the USA, with BP messing up the environment), Siberia, Antarctica (?!).
By the way >>2, thanks for the info. Could we have some references?
And, could electric cars be that useful too? Perhaps in reducing emissions, but is global warming even real? (Sorry for changing topic here)
>>2
sir here is ur green alternative fuel source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing
nuclear power is far mro efficient than oil, creates less polution if reprocessed, is actually cheaper in the long run (due to a lower number of powerplants required to produce energy) ect. as for the cost os uranium and plutonium, read up on breeder reactors.
hence, your alternative fuel source. and before you go citing chernobyl, i remind you that chernobyl was a soviet era reactor that was poorly constructed and the melt down was due to a very stupid proceedure that was admittedly dangerous and was regularly done anyways. By contrast, the turkey point reactor (which supplies all the electricity for south florida) is secure, well constructed, and clean.
Even if demand is rising all over the world, >>2 seems to be implying that the supply of oil is essentially infinite.
INF/2 isn't that much greater than INF/2000. So the price shouldn't be going up reguardless of demand if >>2 is correct.
But that ISN'T what we see happening. We see the price going up -- something that usually happens as the supply of something gets more scarce. You can see the reverse of this in new technology -- at fisrt a new DVD player costs hundreds of dollars, now since we can make a lot of them quickly and cheaply, they cost $25, so everyone can have one. If something gets rare, it costs more.
Now if you can show me proof that we can make oil, then post it, otherwise, Peak Oil is very sensible
I agree with >>7. There's no reason we couldn't cover the world with nuclear power stations and have everyone drive electric cars. Nuclear technology is really interesting, and constantly developing.
>Now if you can show me proof that we can make oil
I think you phrased this badly. Of course we can make synthetic fuel out of coal and there's also biofuels, but these are well known to be expensive. It also depends what you mean by 'oil' since there's a difference between light and heavy crude, and oil shale.
lol "oil isnt running out there is no problem"
burying your head in the sand only means your more likely to get assraped
Because if I panic, everything will get better, right? So I'd better flip out every time I encounter some sensationalist apocalypse story regardless of whatever the evidence says.
The evidence (few, but its there) is against you, and so is logic
>>12
So you're saying it's logical to panic over evert sensationalist apocalypse story.
Okay.
OP, are you sincere in your belief that the rise of industrialism has been more important to civilization than, say, the advent of agriculture?
Please list the plurality of inventions brought about by nomadic tribes in the last millenium or so.
>>14
I'm not going to bother reading the thread to see what you kids are arguing about, but in the last millenium or so nomads have represented an infinitesimally small percentage of the human race. They could be a thousand times more inventive than settled cultures and it would still be difficult to satisfy your request.
are you new here? to this... "Internet" thing?
lol
The more important disaster to look forward to is the moon escaping earth's gravitational field to the point that it no longer controls our seasons. At that point, the only practical lifestyle will be herding reindeer. Then there's the sun expanding and swallowing the earth... and then the heat death of the universe.
The death of Earth is a pretty tiny thing in the large scale. Planets and suns are dying all the time.
Welcome Death...welcome...you are my God now...
I can see a future for solar and wind as a DIY route to lowering utility bills. Farmers used to use windmills to pump water all the time in the previous century, correct? A wind/solar setup might be pretty good for that.
One of the issues I can see with that, however, is mounting these things. How sturdy is a wind tower in a storm, really? Will your roof (shigles, crap, etc.) remain watertight after installing solar panels?
I'd like to see these get more prevalent (let's save the damn coal for the steam locomotive fantrips - and my railroad, which will be the last steam common-carrier in America! Bahahahahahahaaa!!!) but I think some more convincing of EVERYBODY is going to be needed.